KEYNOTE -WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION

1997 will be a record year for steel output. We expect global steel production to reach 794.5 million tonnes - 46 million tonnes (6.1 percent) above the outturn in the previous year. Production in 1998 will be down. We forecast world steel output at 789 million tonnes - 5.5 million tonnes below the anticipated outturn in the previous year. It is, however, possible that the output in 1998 could be lower if the Asian crisis intensifies.

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DIFFICULTIES AHEAD

The massive devaluation of Asian currencies, in recent months, is giving the steelmakers in the region a significant price advantage in export markets. To date, the low prices have not really permeated into the US and EU steel markets. We can, however, be sure that they will in the not too distant future.

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PRICE FIXING

A substantial part of the EU stainless steel industry has been fined by the European Commission for taking part in price fixing agreements. Only Outokumpu, of the major flat products producers, has escaped without penalty. The reason for this will be disclosed when the decision is published next month.

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